Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
